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LOW CARBON TREND

The scientific session of the general meeting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine on the formation and implementation of the model of development of low-carbon economy of Ukraine took place before the war. Leading scientists and officials spoke about economic challenges, finances, energy, ecology and, of course, the role of science. Undoubtedly, the problems that were raised at the meeting will be relevant after the war. For example, strengthening energy security in the world is more important now than ever.

Today, the world community focuses on climate changes and the environmental problems it poses, which certainly need to be resolved comprehensively, both at international and national level.

Academician Anatoliy Zagorodniy, President of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, open the session with these words.  

COMPONENT OF STATE POLICY 

According to Anatoliy Zagorodniy, the increase in the amount of greenhouse gases, the increase in temperature on earth, which is largely due to anthropogenic activities, indicates that this problem is not only a matter of science but also a matter of human survival. In this regard, at the 26th UN International Conference on Climate Change, held last November in Glasgow (Scotland), more than 180 countries voted to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions in 2050-2060. This means that the volume of emissions should not exceed the level of their natural and technological absorption.

– Ukraine is among these countries, so the transition of Ukraine’s economy in the coming decades to the low-carbon development should be an important component of public policy, – said the President of the NAS. – The first steps have already been taken to achieve this goal.

Thus, Ukraine was one of the first to announce its strategy of low-carbon development until 2050. In March last year, the Cabinet of Ministers approved the National Economic Strategy until 2030, which sets out measures to decarbonise the economy, increase energy efficiency, develop renewable energy sources, and develop the so-called circular (waste-free) economy. In July 2021, Ukraine’s Second Nationally Defined Contribution to the Paris Agreement was adopted, in which Ukraine’s new climate goal envisages the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 35% by 2030 compared to 1990. On October 20 last year, the Cabinet of Ministers approved the Strategy for Environmental Safety and Climate Change Adaptation until 2030.

– Obviously, solving the problems of climate changes, providing proposals for ways to develop the country’s economy, as well as ensuring sustainable development of Ukraine cannot be done only through the efforts of government agencies or the expert community, – summed up Anatoliy Zagorodniy. – Continuous thorough scientific support is extremely important.

Oleksiy Solovyov, Deputy Chairman of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, reminded that the National Security and Defense Council’s decision on challenges and threats to Ukraine’s national security in the environmental sphere became operative on March 23, 2021 and priority measures for its implementation were elaborated. Among the main tasks of the Cabinet of Ministers is to submit to the Verkhovna Rada a draft law on low-carbon development of Ukraine for the period up to 2050. In addition, the National Security and Defense Council as an analytical center sees three main areas that can be formulated as tasks for our science in the context of the low-carbon economy model. These are the development of the hydrogen economy, the construction of small nuclear reactors in our country and the development of electric transport in cities with a million-plus population.

Valeriy Bezus, the Head of the State Agency for Energy Efficiency and Energy Saving of Ukraine said that the fact that Ukraine undertook serious commitments under international agreements is a unique opportunity to build its own economy based on the latest technology, the advanced decarbonized technologies.

– The agency actively works in this area, – he said. – In particular, the National Action Plan on Energy Efficiency for the period up to 2030 has been developed, and the government approved it at the end of last year. This is a rather ambitious plan, which envisages a significant reduction in carbon emissions by 2030, a number of measures to decarbonise its main emitters, including national energy. The agency has also developed a draft National Action Plan for Renewable Energy until 2030. We see the prospect of increasing the share of renewable sources in the national consumption structure to 27%.

We also work on a strategy for the development of the hydrogen economy, a mechanism of so-called “green financing”. We also have experience in creating the National Decarbonization Fund.

ECONOMIC FORECASTS

More than 110 countries undertook to move to carbon neutrality. In particular, Ukraine, as well as China and Brazil, want to do it by 2060.

This was stated in the report “Economy of Ukraine in the imperatives of low-carbon development” made by Academician Valeriy Heitz, Director of the Institute of Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine.

– By 2030, our new nationally determined contribution envisages a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from 38% to 35% compared with 1990 level. Very often the question arises why only 3%, but we must keep in mind the dynamics. In recent decades, we passed a complicated way to its reduction. Although our 3% are slightly lower figures compared to those declared by European countries, they must go through a much more difficult path during this time.

The report also presented various scenarios for further decarbonization, both in the world and in Ukraine.

– As expected, the world is electrifying the economy and the development of distributed generation, – Valeriy Geyets said. – At the same time, we see that decarbonisation in the electricity balance also remains a key goal in the world and the EU. Thus, the increase in electricity production in the world by 2050 (2.7 times) and in the EU (1.3 times) should be due to non-traditional types of energy generation.

How will the decarbonisation process take place in the Ukrainian energy sector? According to Valeriy Geyets, 26 billion euros are needed to fulfill our obligations. In this way, there are challenges such as the readiness of the power system to multiply electricity production, decommissioning of coal-fired power plants, intensive development of solar and wind generation, maintenance (increase in) the capacity of nuclear and hydropower, etc.

“Technological modernization and structural transformation of industry in the framework of decarbonization is a necessary condition for ensuring a positive macroeconomic effect from the transition to low-carbon development”, Academician Geyets said. “By 2040, the world must consolidate, scale, commercialize new low-carbon technologies, and develop the technical infrastructure for their use,” he said. “By 2050, technologies that exist today only at the level of prototypes must become competitive.”

The outcomes of the research made in different countries suggest that there may be scenarios when half of the necessary technologies and innovations will not be ready for use by 2050, and by 2070 – 35%. That is, the field for scientific activity is extremely wide.

INTELLECTUAL SYSTEM

Ukraine’s integrated energy system is not fully ready for the transition to low-carbon energy. The most important shortcomings that hinder the possibility of such a transition are the lack of balancing capacities, low flexibility of the system, obsolescence of frequency and power control systems. Oleksandr Kyrylenko, Academician-Secretary of the Department of Physical and Technical Problems of Energy of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, drew attention to this fact in his report “Measures and Means of Transforming Ukraine’s Energy into an Intelligent Ecologically Safe System”.

According to him, the transformation of the existing generation system, the introduction of new balancing capacity and changes in all components of the energy system in accordance with the requirements for the use of RES caused the continuous increase in capacity of renewable energy sources. This transformation is in accordance with the concept of three D (decarbonization, decentralization and digitalization), it is called the energy transition.

According to Oleksandr Kyrylenko, decentralization involves increasing the share of dispersed energy sources (including RES, energy storage units, etc.) that form local clusters of production/consumption and are connected to the general network or operate autonomously, the introduction of new applications aimed at expanding borders and dynamics of UES development.

Digitalization is the transition to the concept of SmartGrid electrical networks, creation and implementation of new business models, services and markets based on digital technologies, the use of smart meters, remote control systems and network automation.

“They allow you to manage the network and connected resources in real time and collect data about the network,” the academician added. “These are intelligent networks, both local and integrated, which allow the use of new methods to control various RES resources.”

COMPETITIVE ENERGY  

Nuclear power plants play an important role in the energy balance of many countries, producing competitive electricity; they are low-carbon sources. This was stated in the report of the Director of the Institute for Nuclear Power Plant Safety of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Academician Anatoliy Nosovsky, “Nuclear Energy of Ukraine in the Context of Sustainable Development.”

He reminded that Ukraine’s energy strategy for the period up to 2035 envisages an increase in electricity production at nuclear power plants by extending the service life of existing nuclear power plants and the construction of new nuclear units. And also, the choice of reactor technology for the construction of new NPPs to replace capacities that will be put out of operation after 2030.

– As of 2022, among the projects of reactors of 3+ generation, the AP1000 reactor of the American company Westinghouse is the most attractive for the energy sector of Ukraine in many respects, – Academician Nosovsky said. Such power units are operated in China and are being built in the United States. The installed capacity utilization rate is in the range of 90% to 99%, which is one of the best indicators among the world’s nuclear power plants. As of 2022, this reactor is the most tested among other projects of third-generation reactor. However, there are certain disadvantages: exceeding the design time of construction and its high cost.

Anatoliy Nosovsky said that scientists from the Institute of NPP Safety Problems have experience in developing devices for the AP1000 reactor at Chinese stations, as well as using new types of concrete mixtures for biological protection of such reactors.

As Anatoliy Nosovsky summed up, nuclear energy has an important role to play in ensuring Ukraine’s energy independence. Therefore, the necessity and importance of implementing a program for the construction of new nuclear power units is obvious. Institutes of the National Academy of Sciences can help our nuclear energy industry in the development of new nuclear technologies. In particular, they should be involved in the work related to the scientific and technical justification of the selection of projects promising for the construction of new nuclear reactors in Ukraine, the implementation of the project to create a Ukrainian power unit and a program to build new nuclear power plants. In addition, according to the academician, research on the development of new nuclear energy technologies should become a priority area of ​​basic and applied research of NASU.

HYDROGEN STRATEGY

Any serious conversation about the low-carbon economy is impossible without mentioning hydrogen, because its combustion does not emit any greenhouse gases.

The Director of the I.M. Frantsevych Institute of Problems of Materials Science of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Academician Yuriy Solonin highlighted in his report the development of research on hydrogen energy in the world and in Ukraine.

According to the Academician, almost all developed countries have national programs on hydrogen energy. Together, technological issues, the creation of demonstration stations for the production of “green” hydrogen, have been resolved using the sun and wind, vehicles on hydrogen fuel, developing a network of hydrogen refueling. However, as the Academician noted, there is no question of mass implementation of all this. So far, “green” hydrogen has a high cost. Electrolyzers, fuel cells, hydrogen storage systems, etc. need to become cheaper and be improved.

– The catalyst for solving all technological problems is the use of hydrogen in road transport, – the scientist said. This also applies to powerful electrolyzers on proton-conducting membranes, compressors for compressing hydrogen up to 700 – 1000 atmospheres, unique composite cylinders for hydrogen storage, etc.

According to Academician Solonin, in addition to purely technological problems, there are also political aspects of the widespread introduction of hydrogen. In Europe, the main player on this issue is Germany; the country wants to become a hydrogen hub in Europe. “At the same time, they have only a third of their own renewable energy sources, and the issue of importing primarily “green” hydrogen is acute”, the scientist added. “Ukraine is considered its main supplier.”

There are preliminary agreements on the creation of a Central European hydrogen corridor.

Since 2006, the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine has launched a number of programs dedicated to hydrogen energy. According to Yuriy Solonin, the last of them was carried out during 2019-2021 and was entitled “Development of scientific principles of production, storage and use of hydrogen in autonomous energy supply systems”. 11 institutes of four branches of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine took part in the program. The main attention was paid to autonomous energy supply systems based on hydrogen and fuel cells with the use of renewable energy sources. The program focused on a number of technologies for producing hydrogen using renewable energy sources – including electrolysis “in pairs” with wind and solar power plants.

According to the Academician, on the basis of the Institute of Materials Science of the NAS, in cooperation with the Institute of Mechanical Engineering of the NAS and the Institute of Renewable Energy of the NAS, a demonstration system of hydrogen production using wind energy is created on the banks of the Kaniv Reservoir in Pereyaslav. “Studies of the modes of its operation demonstrated the feasibility of using such systems in the region for autonomous energy supply of individual estates or small farms. Regarding the use of solar radiation to produce hydrogen, the Institute of General and Inorganic Chemistry of the National Academy of Sciences together with the Institute of Materials Science of the National Academy of Sciences developed and patented portable photoelectrochemical cells for hydrogen accumulation. According to the scientist, this device actually combines a solar cell, an electrolyzer, a hydrogen battery and a fuel cell.

– In the field of hydrogen energy, we are now at a crossroads, – summed up Academician Solonin. – The first way is to make every effort to obtain imported equipment, establish the production of green hydrogen at the expense of our resources and send it to Europe. The second way – without giving up the first, to direct all the funds that can be earned to the development of its own hydrogen infrastructure, hydrogen technology, science. This is the path taken by Japan after the Second World War: the country strongly supported the most promising metallurgical industry in terms of exports, but directed all the proceeds to the development of high technology.

Energy accounts for 66% of Ukraine’s greenhouse gas emissions. In the latest version of Ukraine’s Energy Strategy, this percentage is declining somewhat, but at a slow pace This was stated in the report of the Head of the Department of the Institute of Technical Thermophysics of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, corresponding member of the National Academy of Sciences Borys Bask.

He also reminded that Ukraine has a National Plan for Reducing Emissions from Large Combustion Plants since 2017. We have 233 such units with a capacity of over 50 megawatts. At the request of European energy legislation, we implement a trend to reduce emissions.

Although the Glasgow Climate Pact is making adjustments. Because by 2030, all coal-fired combustion plants should be equipped with carbon dioxide filters.

NATURAL ECOSYSTEMS AND DECARBONIZATION

The Head of the Department of the M.G. Kholodny Institute of Botany of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Academician Yakiv Didukh, spoke about the role of Ukraine’s natural ecosystems in ensuring decarbonization and development of the European green course.

According to him, the problem of carbon imbalance is especially acute due to climate change, increasing anthropogenic impact, which together cause a negative synergistic result.

– Although today the difference between absorptions and emissions is still positive (1.1 Gt/year), but about half of them accumulate in the atmosphere, which leads to increased concentrations and, consequently, an increase in average annual temperatures, – says the Academician.

In his speech, Yakiv Diduch analyzed the issue of optimizing the deposition of carbon in natural ecosystems, providing appropriate energy calculations for different types of ecosystems. For example, the largest areas in Ukraine are arable land – 56%, and energy reserves account for 25%. While in forests, which occupy 15.9% of the area, 68% of energy is deposited. That is, forests, as the Academician stressed, are actually the most powerful depot and therefore special attention is focused on their restoration.

– Problems of environmental change, decarbonization of the economy affect many aspects of the functioning of the biosphere, social development, various sectors of the economy, – said Yakiv Didukh. – One of the effective characteristics is the assessment of ecosystem services as benefits that society receives from nature and are a tool of ecosystem value. They underlie the environmental policy of the 21st century. Such developments are reflected in the new environmental and economic paradigm – the European Green Course, which provides for the widespread introduction of man-caused, economic, environmental, economic, social, political levers aimed at improving relations between society and nature in today’s realities.

According to Yakov Didukh, scientists of the Academy can be involved in the scientific support of the preparation of relevant documents, tasks, action plans for various sectors of the economy and environmental protection, providing monitoring research.

And training personnel of the corresponding qualification, as well.

WITH ADJUSTMENT FOR TIME

The solution of large-scale problems discussed during the session can be achieved only by the joint efforts of all branches of authorities in the country, local communities and the broad involvement of national science. Anatoliy Zagorodniy closed the session with these words. Based on the results of the meeting, an appeal was prepared to the Cabinet of Ministers with specific proposals and recommendations on prospects and ways to develop the model of low-carbon economy of Ukraine and the participation of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine in its scientific support.

Certainly, we will return to these crucial issues in peacetime, and adjust them with due regard for the consequences of the war.

Dmytro SHULIKIN