Speech by Mykhailo Zgurovsky,
Chairman of the Ukrainian Peace Council,
at the International Forum “Education, Science, Innovation: Human Capital in the Post-War Recovery of Ukraine”
Distinguished participants of the Forum,
We are meeting at a time of unprecedented trials for Ukraine. The lessons we are learning compel us to reflect on a new model of a post-war, successful, and secure state. The decisive factor of such recovery is human capital, whose key qualitative characteristics determine the very possibility of achieving this goal.
Analyzing the transformation of human capital in Ukraine over the years of independence, it should be recalled that in the early 1990s Ukraine, with a population of 52 million, was among the regions of the world with one of the highest levels of education and a powerful research potential—in mathematics, cybernetics, mechanics, nuclear physics, engineering, space technologies, and other strategic fields that shaped technological progress.
However, already from the first years of independence, negative demographic trends began to emerge in Ukraine: population decline, growing emigration, and negative natural population growth. According to the World Bank and the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, the population decreased from 52 million in 1991 to 37.9 million in 2024.
This decline occurred in waves. In the 1990s, the economic crisis led to the loss of 3.5–4.5 million people due to extremely high mortality, a sharp decline in birth rates, and a surge in labor emigration. In the early 2000s, deindustrialization and the transition to a raw-material-based economy resulted in the loss of 1.2–1.6 million highly skilled jobs and additional emigration of 2.5–3.5 million people. After 2014, and especially following the full-scale aggression in 2022, population outflows accelerated sharply: according to estimates by the European Commission, 6.5–8.5 million Ukrainian citizens are currently abroad.
Natural population growth remained consistently negative throughout 1991–2025, and during the war the natural decline reached 400–450 thousand people per year—the worst figure since independence.
Taken together, the economic shocks of the 1990s, deindustrialization of the 2000s, and the war of 2014–2025 have formed an acute demographic crisis that poses a long-term threat to the development and security of the state.
However, the most serious problem has been the loss of qualitative characteristics of Ukraine’s human capital. According to the UNESCO Institute for Statistics, in 1991–2024 Ukraine experienced the largest reduction in Europe in the number of researchers per one million population. Their density decreased by more than half—from 1,200 per million population in 1991 to 520 in 2024. According to assessments by the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine and leading analytical centers, between 60 and 80 scientific schools in strategically important fields of science and technology ceased to exist during this period. This refers not only to the loss of specialists, but to the collapse of knowledge accumulated over decades, methodologies, technological traditions, and institutional memory—that is, the very capacity of the country to generate and reproduce innovation. This is one of the most critical challenges to the future development of the state.
The dynamics of science funding in Ukraine during 1991–2024 demonstrate the deepest decline among post-Soviet countries: from approximately 2% of GDP in 1991 to 0.25–0.3% in 2023–2025. This eightfold reduction significantly weakened research infrastructure, caused massive brain drain, and undermined national competitiveness.
At the same time, there was a rapid deterioration in the quality of school and higher education in Ukraine. According to the results of the international PISA study (Programme for International Student Assessment), already in 2018 Ukrainian 15-year-old students significantly lagged behind the average indicators of OECD countries in reading, mathematics, and science (Ukraine ranked 39th out of 79 countries). In 2022, the gap with developed countries reached 30–50 points, which corresponds to the loss of approximately one year of schooling. This indicates a systemic weakening of the initial capabilities of school youth and a growing risk of losing their competitive competencies in the future.
In higher education, according to assessments by the International Labour Organization, the gap between graduates’ competencies and labor market requirements is rapidly widening. Employers note a shortage not only of modern technical skills, but also of critical cognitive abilities—problem-solving, systems thinking, teamwork, English communication, and adaptability.
The personnel deficit in high-tech and defense sectors is turning into a structural crisis: a diploma is no longer an indicator of job readiness, and businesses are increasingly forced to assume responsibility for substantial additional training of newly hired specialists.
The deterioration in the quality of human capital preparation in Ukraine is directly linked to the degradation of strategic high-tech industries that occurred during 1991–2025. According to data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, UNIDO, and the World Bank, 11 key sectors—from space rocket engineering, aircraft manufacturing, and shipbuilding to microelectronics, instrumentation, and other high-tech industries—lost 60–100% of their production cycles, scientific schools, and engineering competencies. In these sectors, the destruction of many technological chains is irreversible.
As a result, the country has lost at least 400–500 thousand engineers, technologists, and researchers; more than 25 thousand scientists emigrated before 2014, and another 30–35 thousand after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war. The cumulative loss of export potential in these sectors is estimated at over USD 150 billion.
At the same time, the war has sharply accelerated the development of niche technological competencies that have become new growth points for Ukraine’s defense-industrial complex and high-tech economy. The most powerful breakthrough has occurred in the UAV sector: the number of manufacturers increased from several dozen in 2021 to more than 200 in 2024–2025, while annual output grew fiftyfold to several million drones, including strike UAVs with ranges from 300 to over 1,000 kilometers. In parallel, competencies in missile electronics, sensor systems, and navigation modules have strengthened. Technological clusters created in Ukraine have already reduced import dependence by 30–40%.
The IT sector continues to generate USD 7–8 billion in annual exports and accounts for over 55% of high-tech exports, while developing one of Europe’s strongest cybersecurity schools. The electronic warfare sector is also growing dynamically: in 2023–2025 alone, more than 30 new types of tactical systems were created.
According to UNIDO estimates, the capitalization of these niche sectors in 2024–2025 amounted to USD 32–48 billion, or 15–20% of pre-war GDP, making them one of Europe’s most dynamic defense-technology clusters. This raises a key question: how can these innovation hubs be scaled and transformed into sustainable drivers of Ukraine’s post-war economic development? In our view, this requires the implementation of the following set of principles:
- The formation of a forward-looking state policy aimed at the balanced development of humanitarian and high-tech sectors as the foundation of Ukraine’s national progress and security. Key priorities must include human development, science, engineering, innovation, and digital transformation, as well as the creation of a critical mass of highly qualified specialists and conditions for the return of Ukrainians from around the world.
- Post-war Ukraine requires a new humanitarian architecture—a renewed social contract based on the rule of law, European democracy, dignity, freedom, responsibility, and resilience. Such transformation must restore social capital, overcome corruption, consolidate society, and foster a culture of personal and institutional accountability.
- Education must be rethought as part of a unified innovation ecosystem together with science and high-tech industry. Today, these spheres are separated by inconsistent bureaucratic barriers and outdated regulations that restrict the movement of talent, technologies, and knowledge within a shared innovation space. Relying on advanced science and the needs of a high-tech economy, renewed education must provide the country with a critical mass of specialists for innovative development and global competitiveness.
- In post-war Ukraine, the development of professional competencies goes beyond the capabilities of the education system alone. It must take place directly in industry, production, and scientific-technological environments where modern skills are formed. Therefore, the model of lifelong learning becomes crucial, ensuring continuous renewal of competencies in line with the needs of the high-tech market and societal challenges.
These principles lead to one main conclusion: under conditions of the collapse of the Yalta–Potsdam world order and the advance of the “law of force,” only technologically, security-wise, and humanitarily developed states can preserve sovereignty and independence. With wise state policy—as demonstrated by Israel, South Korea, and several other countries that have lived for decades in unfriendly environments—education, science, and innovation become strategic assets; a new humanitarian model becomes the foundation of resilience; work with youth becomes an investment in the future; and the return of Ukrainians and retention of talent become key prerequisites for a competitive, high-tech, and secure state.
Thank you for your attention.