On October 8-10, the Fourth International Conference on System Analysis & Intelligent Computing (2024 IEEE Fourth International Conference on System Analysis & Intelligent Computing, SAIC 2024) took place at the Institute for Applied System Analysis of the Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute. Due to the relevance of the conference’s theme, journalists from the “Svit” newspaper interviewed the head of the organizing committee, Academician of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Mykhailo Zgurovsky, regarding the event’s essence and key outcomes.
Mykhailo Zakharovych, this is already the fourth international conference on this topic held in Ukraine. Why is there a need for its periodic organization, and what is the history of this conference?
This conference inherits the work of the annual local conferences of the Institute for Applied System Analysis (IASA) on the theme “System Analysis and Information Technologies,” which were held for 20 years, from 1999 to 2018. By 2018, considering the geographical spread of participants and the relevance of the topics, the IASA conference reached a significant international level.
Thus, the organizers approached the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) with a proposal to grant the conference the status of this authoritative international organization. The status was granted, and since 2018, we have held four IEEE conferences on system analysis and intelligent computing.
The organizing committee of the now permanent conference includes more than 70 prominent scientists from Ukraine, the USA, Italy, France, Romania, Belgium, Poland, Bulgaria, the Netherlands, Egypt, Turkey, and several other countries.
In total, more than 216 presentations have been made at the 2018, 2020, 2022, and 2024 conferences on pressing topics of system analysis, artificial intelligence, intelligent data analysis, and other fields of modern science and technology. All presented papers are published in the IEEE Xplore database and indexed in SCOPUS and Web of Science. Moreover, in 2021, Springer published selected papers from the 2020 conference.
How did the current, fourth international conference SAIC 2024 go? What were the main issues discussed?
In total, 46 papers were presented during the conference across four sections. The authors were researchers from Azerbaijan, Australia, Canada, France, Indonesia, and Ukraine.
The plenary session featured conceptual presentations on current issues of our time, highlighting key threats to the sustainable development of global society in the context of conflicts, the role of generative artificial intelligence in various spheres of human activity, the formalization of methods for developing autonomous AI systems, and the fundamentals of mathematical modeling of the instability of ecological and economic systems.
The first section discussed “System Analysis of Complex Systems” (chaired by corresponding member of the NAS of Ukraine, N.D. Pankratova, and Prof. A.I. Petrenko). The session covered the development and application of methods, models, and technologies for system analysis of complex processes of various natures under conditions of uncertainty and multiple risks. Special attention was given to cyber-physical systems, digital twins, Internet of Things technologies, and other modern technologies, considering the high demands for accuracy and reliability in such systems when solving forecasting, decision-making, and strategic planning tasks.
The second section, “Methods, Tools, and Applications of System Mathematics” (chaired by corresponding member of NAS of Ukraine, P.O. Kasyanov), covered a wide range of studies—from the analysis of nonlinear systems dynamics and nonlinear modeling to modern approaches in signal processing and the use of robotics. Participants discussed forecasting methods using unstable data, mathematical tools for system analysis such as trigonometric polynomials, Taylor series, and interpolation methods. They also addressed the relationship between solutions of heat conduction and Laplace equations, the stability of technological processes in discrete systems, and the methods of training visual neural networks for robotics applications.
In the third section, “Computational Intelligence” (chaired by Prof. Yu.P. Zaichenko), presentations focused on modern areas of artificial intelligence and its applications in practical tasks. The research on the fourth generation of self-organizing neural networks and their use for financial market forecasting, satellite information processing, and image recognition for crop yield and forest condition assessment was discussed. Topics also included the use of AI methods in transport logistics, ecological state forecasting, medical image processing, tumor recognition in medical diagnostics, distributed computing organization, and the development of neural network-based control systems. Additionally, approaches to finding compromise solutions in territorial management tasks with conflicting objectives were discussed.
A highlight of the fourth section, “Intelligent Data Analysis for Complex Socio-Economic Processes and Systems” (chaired by Prof. P.I. Bidyuk and Prof. M.O. Kravchenko), was the examination of modern methods for intelligent analysis of large data volumes to identify hidden trends and patterns in complex socio-economic systems and financial markets. The algorithms and methods for effective risk management and scenario planning tools that support a comprehensive approach to management and decision-making in these systems were presented.
In general, the SAIC 2024 conference demonstrated the importance of a systemic approach and intelligent computing in analyzing and solving complex tasks using modern technologies of artificial intelligence, mathematical modeling, and big data analysis. The participants discussed a wide range of innovative solutions that contribute to sustainable development, improved forecasting accuracy, and enhanced management efficiency in various spheres of human activity, both in Ukraine and the global community.
In your plenary speech, you presented results obtained through methods of system analysis and data mining, concerning the patterns of emergence and development of global systemic conflicts and their impact on peace, national stability, and the sustainable development of global society. This topic is particularly relevant for Ukrainians and people around the world, considering the Russia-Ukraine war and other conflicts. What is the main conclusion you can draw from your research? What should humanity expect in the coming years and decades?
Our research group, as early as 2005-2008, while analyzing large volumes of historical data, identified a worrying trend of a potential increase in global conflicts in the first half of the 21st century. At that time, under the prevailing paradigm of globalization and harmony in the world, our conclusions seemed hypothetical. However, 20 years later, we are witnessing the first confirmations of our forecasts. Therefore, we returned to this research and presented new results at the SAIC 2024 conference regarding the main threats to the sustainable development of global society in a conflicted world, of which modern Ukraine is a part.
The study analyzes the development of C-waves of global systemic conflicts from 750 BC to the present day. Using data mining on large historical datasets, a Fibonacci sequence was discovered in the periodicity of these conflicts. The next global conflict, tentatively called the ‘conflict of the 21st century,’ is predicted to last from 2008 to 2092, with its peak in the middle of the century. This forecast also aligns with the findings of the Club of Rome and Volodymyr Vernadsky, who independently warned: ‘If humanity does not change its behavior, the conditions for human survival on Earth could become critical by the middle of the 21st century.’
That sounds alarming.
I agree. We have identified 11 major global threats that shape this conflict and contribute to its escalation. These include: the global decline in fossil fuel resources, the imbalance between Earth’s biocapacity and the population’s consumption needs, rising inequality, the spread of diseases, the information gap, corruption, limited access to drinking water, climate change, the fragility of states, terrorism, and the increase in conflicts.
By conducting computer simulations, we calculated the vulnerability of different countries to the simultaneous effects of these threats. The results strongly correlate with data from well-known research centers in the field of conflict studies. For instance, the Heidelberg Institute for International Conflict Research (Heidelberg, Germany) reported that over the past decade, the total number of conflicts worldwide increased from 335 to 363, and the number of limited violent conflicts rose from 184 to 216. Five major conflicts over the past 15 years, including the war in Ukraine, the civil war in Syria, the war in Yemen, and the conflict between Israel and Hamas and Hezbollah, have significantly affected global politics, economics, and the humanitarian situation, leading to one of the greatest humanitarian catastrophes in modern history. These conflicts have resulted in at least 1.5 million deaths, over 2.5 million injuries, and more than 23 million displaced persons. Unfortunately, these numbers continue to change. Our research indicates that this trend is intensifying and could reach its peak in the middle of this century. The war in Ukraine is only part of this global process.
How are new technologies affecting conflicts?
New technologies are radically changing the nature of modern conflicts, influencing combat operations, economic, hybrid, and informational warfare. Cyberattacks on critical infrastructure and government resources are becoming central to all types of conflicts, allowing for destructive impacts without physical actions. Artificial intelligence, integrated into drones and autonomous systems, is transforming warfare by minimizing risks to human lives. Manipulation through social media is used to destabilize public sentiment and political processes. Hypersonic missiles capable of evading missile defense systems are significantly altering the military balance. Cryptocurrencies and anonymous transactions complicate monitoring conflict financing. The use of satellites and drones for reconnaissance greatly increases surveillance efficiency. These changes require fundamentally new approaches to security and defense organization.
These are indeed troubling trends. Is there a possibility for an optimistic scenario for the development of global society, based on your research?
It is crucial to understand the conditions under which an optimistic scenario for humanity’s development is possible and how to promote its realization. We posed the question: what can the global community do to avoid the undesirable consequences of current human activities? The answer can be found once again in the works of Volodymyr Vernadsky, particularly A Few Words on the Noosphere (1944), the Club of Rome’s report The Limits to Growth (1972), recommendations from the UN, WHO, UNICEF, and studies by several contemporary scientists. These conclusions are summarized as follows: ‘If humanity abandons the paradigm of ‘unlimited consumption’ and shifts to the paradigm of ‘harmonious coexistence and reasonable consumption,’ transforming the technosphere into a ‘nature-like’ system based on the convergence of nano-, bio-, information, cognitive, and socio-humanitarian technologies, it can ensure environmental stability and continue its creative mission on planet Earth.’
Is that possible?
It all depends on us. The adoption of the Future Pact at the 79th Session of the UN General Assembly in New York on September 22 this year offers hope for realizing the model of ‘harmonious coexistence and reasonable consumption,’ uniting countries to respond to the challenges of the 21st century. The Pact calls on the leaders of the 193 UN member states to turn promises into real actions capable of improving the lives of more than 8 billion people worldwide. We can only hope for the realization of this vision.”
Interview conducted by Larisa OSTROLUTSKA